000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160240 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The satellite presentation of Ivette this evening has degraded, with the prior burst of deep convection shearing away to the west and dissipating, though a smaller convective cell has begun to redevelop on the southwest side of the circulation. The definition of the center itself on both conventional satellite and microwave imagery appears more diffuse than before, suggesting that the earlier convective burst did not help to tighten up the circulation. While earlier scatterometer data indicated tropical-storm-force winds existed in the convective northwest quadrant of Ivette, more recent surface wind observations from Clarion island, also in this quadrant, are lower than earlier, sustained at only 21 kt with gusts up to 28 kt. These observations, in combination with the degradation in the satellite structure this evening, support lowering the intensity back to 30 kt for this advisory. The ongoing moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear is not expected to subside for the next several days. However, as previously mentioned, Ivette is expected to remain over sufficently warm water that may allow occasional convective bursts over this period, and it is difficult to determine when this activity will become insufficient to maintain Ivette's status as a tropical cyclone. It is still presumed that the ongoing shear will be too hostile to allow these convective bursts to remain organized, and like the previous advisory, gradual weakening is still forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Ivette becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 hours. One alternative scenario is that the system may be able to persist as a weak tropical cyclone a bit longer than forecasted if convection redevelops like that seen earlier today. There has been a slight acceleration in Ivette's westward motion this evening, now estimated at 260/3 kt. A general slow westward motion is forecast over the next several days following the weak low-level steering, in addition to occasional convective bursts on the west side of the circulation that may continue to tug it in that direction. The latest NHC forecast track remains close to the consensus aids and is just a touch north of the previous forecast track after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.6N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.7N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 18.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 18.6N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin