000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150244 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 While there are several convective bursts forming in a scattered fashion around the low-level circulation of the depression this evening, this activity lacks much organization. 0000 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB were CI 1.5/2.5 respectively, and an average of these estimates still supports maintaining the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. A prominent upper-level anticyclone to the north of Tropical Depression Ten-E is expected to further increase the easterly vertical wind shear over the system, with the ECMWF-SHIPS showing the magnitude approaching 30 kt in the next 24 hours. This shear should result in the depression ingesting dry and more stable air from outside of its core, further limiting convective activity. Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models continues to suggest the system will no longer be able to produce organized convection by tomorrow night, marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low. This remnant low will likely survive several more days before it dissipates. The depression has been drifting to the west-southwest, with the latest motion estimated at 245/3 kt. Low-level steering is expected to maintain a slow west-southwestward heading over the next day or so with a gradual bend westward forecast thereafter. The latest NHC track was again shifted a bit south of the previous one given a southward shift in the track guidance envelope, but still lies near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids during the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.8N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin