000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120843
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Darby Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052022
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022
 
Darby has remained an impressive, compact hurricane with an 
annular structure through the night.  After a brief period of 
eyewall warming, the cold cloud tops surrounding the clear eye now 
range between -60 and -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is 
held at 120 kt, which is above the subjective Dvorak estimates of 
102 kt and 115 kt based on the current presentation in satellite 
imagery.

The hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively conducive 
environment for the next 12 hours or so.  Beyond that time frame, 
Darby should encounter cooler waters and increasingly dry air 
which will likely begin a general weakening trend.  The system is 
expected to rapidly weaken and become post-tropical when the 
vertical wind shear increases significantly in a few days.  The 
official intensity forecast closely follows the previous advisory 
and is slightly above the model consensus aids in the near-term 
forecast.

Darby is moving westward at about 15 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the 
north should continue to steer the hurricane westward to 
west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin.  As the system 
weakens to a more shallow circulation, it is expected to turn 
westward following the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track 
forecast is slightly south of the previous prediction but is still 
north of the model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 14.7N 128.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 14.8N 130.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 15.0N 132.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 15.5N 135.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 16.2N 137.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 16.8N 140.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 17.2N 142.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 17.3N 148.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci