000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110950
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Darby Special Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052022
1200 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022
 
This is a special advisory to update the intensity of the hurricane 
and the shorter-term intensity forecast.  Recent enhanced infrared 
satellite images indicate that Darby's eye has become significantly 
better defined and embedded within cloud tops colder than -70C.  
Objective Dvorak T-numbers now support an intensity of 90 kt.  Based 
on this rapid strengthening, the official intensity forecast has 
been adjusted upward through the 24-hour period, and now shows Darby 
becoming a major hurricane.  This is above the model guidance but 
follows the current intensification trend.

No changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast after 24 
hours, or to the official track forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1000Z 14.5N 122.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci