000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110841
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Darby Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052022
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022
 
Darby continues to improve in organization tonight and appears to 
be on a strengthening trend.  Satellite imagery shows that the 
cloud pattern has become more symmetric and the small hurricane may 
be trying to form a clear eye. Subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS increased to 65 
kt, 77 kt, and 80 kt, respectively.  The initial intensity is 
increased to 75 kt representing a blend of these estimates.

Low vertical wind shear and warm ocean waters make up the conducive 
environmental conditions for Darby to strengthen.  The system is 
expect to remain in an environment supportive of further 
intensification for the next day or so.  Statistical guidance, such 
as DTOPS, show a higher potential for rapid intensification in the 
next 24 hours.  Thereafter, the hurricane should reach cooler waters 
and begin to weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher 
than the previous advisory in the short-term forecast due to the 
recent strengthening.  It remains above most of the model guidance 
early in the forecast period, and close to the consensus after a 
couple of days. 

The hurricane is moving west at 14 kt.  Darby is being steered by a 
mid-level ridge to its north and should continue westward for the 
next couple of days.  Then, the system should turn 
west-northwestward as it moves around the southwestern periphery of 
the ridge.  The official track forecast has been shifted south of 
the previous NHC prediction but not as far south as the model 
consensus. It is also slower than the consensus aids, favoring the 
GFS and ECMWF over the UKMET which seems to be unrealistically fast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 14.5N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci