482 
WTPZ45 KNHC 100248
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152021
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021
 
Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with
satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to
make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions
in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore.  The 
eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the 
objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has 
increased to 90 kt.  Based on this and an increase in the 
organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial 
intensity is increased to 85 kt.
 
The initial motion is 325/10.  Olaf should continue moving
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the
center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during this time.  After that, a mid-level
ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should
cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a
southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by
low-level northeasterly flow.  The forecast guidance has changed
little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
 
A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf
interacts with the Baja California peninsula.  When the cyclone
turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and
into a drier air mass.  This combination should cause the
convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low
by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h.  The new intensity forecast has
some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the
middle of the intensity guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions
have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning
area tonight and will spread northward through Friday.
 
2.  Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven