000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032036
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021
 
Ignacio has been devoid of deep convection within 75 nmi of the 
center for the more than 6 hours now due to strong easterly vertical 
wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on 
the continued degradation in the convective pattern and a 1536Z 
ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that revealed a patch of 27-kt surface 
wind vectors south of the center. The small cyclone is expected to
meander over water temperatures near 26 deg C for the next 12-24 
hours, while the shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt during 
that time. Owing to these unfavorable environmental conditions, 
Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system 
by late this afternoon, followed by dissipation on Wednesday.
 
The initial motion estimate is now 090/03 kt. Ignacio is forecast to 
make a small clockwise loop within weak low-level steering flow 
until the system dissipates around 36 hours. The new NHC official 
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies 
close to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-consensus 
models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 20.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart