000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030233
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021
 
The low-level center of Ignacio is becoming even more separated from 
the main area of deep convection as strong east-northeasterly shear 
continue to affect the cyclone.  The associated deep convection is 
also shrinking in coverage.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from 
TAFB and SAB still give 35 kt, but that is probably a generous 
estimate for the strength of the system given its disheveled 
appearance.
 
Ignacio is moving northwestward, or about 310/8 kt.  The cyclone is 
expected to slow its forward speed while it nears a weakness between 
two low- to mid-level anticyclones in a day or so.  The track 
guidance shows an eastward turn in 24-36 hours, but the system will 
likely be influenced more by the weak surface flow, and move very 
slowly, by that time.  The official track forecast is shifted 
eastward from the previous one, but is not nearly as far east as the 
latest model consensus.

Ignacio is expected to move through an environment of strong shear 
and over marginal SSTs through tomorrow.  The model guidance is in 
agreement that the cyclone will weaken to a depression on Tuesday, 
and the global models show the system dissipating in 48 hours.  
Given the current disorganizing trend, however, Ignacio may 
degenerate even faster than shown here.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 19.6N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.3N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.1N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 21.6N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch