843 
WTPZ45 KNHC 300835
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south 
of the estimated center.  This convective area has expanded a bit 
over the past few hours.  On this basis, the cyclone is maintained 
as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above 
the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  Enrique 
should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with 
the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula.  The 
official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective 
guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction.  Enrique 
should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in 
36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct.

Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my 
best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt.  
This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar 
provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico.  A weak ridge to 
the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a 
northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation.  The 
official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected 
consensus solution.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across 
portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula 
during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of 
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch