000
WTPZ45 KNHC 290239
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021
 
Deep convection associated with Enrique has continued to wane this
evening, with the cloud tops warming and the center located just to
the northwest of the remaining convective activity.  The subjective
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease along with
the UW/CIMSS objective T-numbers.  A blend of these and an earlier
SATCON estimate yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt for this
advisory. Although the center of Enrique is located over SSTs of
around 28C, the storm has been entraining a drier and more stable
air mass located just to its west, which has led to the loss of
organization.  Bursts of deep convection will likely continue
during the next day or so while the storm moves northwestward near
a sharp SST gradient.  However, steady weakening is anticipated
during Enrique's approach to the southern portion of the Baja
peninsula.  Land interaction and decreasing SSTs should cause the
system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days, and
dissipate within 72 hours.
 
Enrique is moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from before.  A low- to mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the storm should steer Enrique northwestward over
the next couple of days.  The track guidance has shifted back to
the east this cycle and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction, but it lies a little to the west of the latest
multi-model consensus aids. The guidance has again trended faster
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple days.  The rainfall over the mainland of
Mexico continue to pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning
Tuesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that
area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward
along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 21.1N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown