000
WTPZ45 KNHC 282055
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

This afternoon Enrique's satellite structure has rapidly 
deteriorated, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to the 
north of a shrinking region of deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB 
came in with T4.0/65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates this afternoon, 
however the data T-numbers, which are less constrained than the 
Current Intensity numbers, were lower. The latest objective UW-CIMSS 
ADT estimates has also been rapidly dropping with the current value 
at T3.0/45 kt.  Since the satellite structure has continued to 
degrade, Enrique has been downgraded to a tropical storm with a 60 
kt intensity.
 
Enrique has continued to turn leftward through the course of the 
day, with the estimated motion now at 315/5 kt. Over the next few 
days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to maintain the 
storm on a slow northwest heading. However, there has been a subtle 
left and fast shift in the guidance this afternoon. The latest NHC 
track forecast has shifted a bit west and is a bit faster in 
accordance with the consensus aids, but is not as far west or quick 
as the latest TVCE consensus.
 
Dry-air entrainment has done a number to the inner core of Enrique 
today. As the storm continues to move northwestward towards lower 
oceanic heat content and a drier and more stable environment, 
weakening is expected to continue. However, the storm is still 
forecasted to be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip 
of Baja California where tropical storm watches remain in effect. By 
72 h the low-level circulation could be further disrupted by the 
terrain of Baja California and the latest NHC forecast expects 
Enrique to degenerate into a remnant low by that time.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple days, 
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.
 
2. The core of Enrique is moving away from southwestern coast of 
Mexico this afternoon.  Tropical-storm-force winds could still 
occur over portions of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas 
through tonight.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart