000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250843
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Scatterometer data near 04Z indicated that the wind circulation 
of the low pressure area located south of southwestern Mexico had 
become better defined, although the west quadrant was a bit weak to 
to a trough extending from the low to a second low near 14N 109W.  
Since that time, the associated convective banding has become better 
organized, indicating that development has continued.  All three 
ASCATs showed 35 kt winds to the southeast of the center, so 
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Enrique.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/8.  Enrique is 
currently to the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  The 
global models forecast the ridge to weaken as a mid- to upper-level 
trough develops over the southwestern United States during the next 
few days.  The track guidance generally responds to this by 
forecasting Enrique to slow its forward motion and turn more 
northwestward.  After 96 h, the ridge strengthens slightly, which 
should cause the tropical cyclone to again move west-northwestward. 
The track guidance has some spread, with the GFS, Canadian, and 
HMON models on the right side of the guidance envelope closer to 
the coast of Mexico, and the UKMET model farther out to sea on the 
left side.   The official forecast track lies near and is a little 
slower than the various consensus models.

The cyclone is currently in an area of moderate northeasterly 
vertical wind shear, and light to moderate shear conditions are 
expected during the next 60 h or so while Enrique is over warm 
water in a moist environment.  Thus, Enrique is expected to 
strengthen and this part of the official forecast, which is in the 
weaker portion of the intensity guidance, could be conservative.  
After about 60 h, increased shear and decreasing sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track should cause Enrique to 
weaken, and this part of the official forecast is near the 
intensity consensus.

While the center of Enrique is forecast to stay offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico, tropical-storm force winds might 
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next 
few days.  A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of 
that area later today.  In addition, outer rainbands are expected 
to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 15.0N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven