000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151436
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF
OCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING
MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT
OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART