000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140239 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF OCTAVE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 0006 UTC SSMI/S PASS ALSO SUGGESTED AN EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 1800 UTC...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE 26C- ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE OVER SHARPLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLING SEA SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE... ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 24 HOURS...SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEYOND THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH OCTAVE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SOON AFTER THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. OCTAVE HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS...335/13. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO DECELERATE WHEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATE FROM ONE ANOTHER...LEAVING THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OCTAVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 22.3N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 23.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 25.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 25.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN