000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130832
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013
 
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. 

OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN
ATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.
THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...
AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI