000
WTPZ45 KNHC 291450
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013
 
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE TAKING A TOLL ON
JULIETTE.  THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED...WITH ONLY
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES
OVER COLDER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE
SMALL CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.  EITHER WAY...JULIETTE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 19 KT.  
THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 25.7N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 27.1N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 28.2N 117.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0000Z 29.0N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN