000
WTPZ45 KNHC 290247
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013
800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
JULIETTE IS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SMALL CENTER
NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CABO PULMO MEXICO.
 
JULIETTE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/21...AS IT IS
EMBEDDED IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER
THAT...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE GYRE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 12 HR...AND IT LIES A LITTLE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN
24 HR OR LESS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW OVER COLD WATER IN ABOUT 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BETWEEN
48-72 HR.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS SMALL CYCLONE WOULD
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY DEGENERATING TO AN
OPEN TROUGH.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 23.0N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 24.7N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 27.1N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 27.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN