000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090832
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ERICK HAS DISSIPATED.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL
WATERS AND WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING EVEN LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
BE GENEROUS.  ERICK SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BE
DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS
THAT IT REMAINS ON COURSE WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 310/9.  THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND DECELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 23.9N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH