000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080252
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON HAS PERSISTED INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO WARM.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE
VARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE 
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8.  ERICK IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 20.8N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN