000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071440
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND NO
SIGNS OF AN EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB/CIMSS DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ERICK HAS
PEAKED IN INTENSITY WITH THE CYCLONE NOW CROSSING OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST...A BIT BELOW
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-22C WATER...IF NOT SOONER.    

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/9.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD FIRM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING ERICK TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM
PASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
BECAUSE ERICK IS MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 20.0N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART