000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061457
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE.  THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH
LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ
MICROWAVE CHANNELS.  IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70
KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE
WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX.  

MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8.  THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.  THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST
STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT
FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.  THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE
MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR. 
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE
TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
LAND.  A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND
WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR.  THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART