000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052044
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A
DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES.
MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD
TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.
 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL
FORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY
OF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER
WATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A
BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART