000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121440
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN MEXICO...WITH A NOTABLE WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS FROM
NEAR THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 55 KT.  SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
LAND..STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH JOVA FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5.  JOVA SHOULD
CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
EVEN AS JOVA WEAKENS AND THE WIND AND SURGE THREATS DECREASE...
INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 20.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  13/0000Z 21.3N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/1200Z 21.5N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN