000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120837
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
 
BEFORE THE CENTER OF JOVA MOVED INLAND...AN EYE WAS BRIEFLY APPARENT
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN
0000 AND 0300 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. THEREFORE IT
IS ESTIMATED THAT JOVA MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT UNTIL
LANDFALL AROUND 0500 UTC. SINCE LANDFALL THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED...WITH MOST OF THE COLD TOPS NOW LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
75 KT. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND
AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE
NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS AND THE LGEM...MAKING JOVA A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND SHOWING DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER AND
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
JOVA ACCELERATED A LITTLE AND TURNED NORTHWARD AS IT MADE
LANDFALL...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/8. AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF JOVA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.
 
EVEN AS JOVA WEAKENS AND THE WIND AND SURGE THREATS DECREASE...
INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 19.9N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 20.7N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/0600Z 21.0N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/1800Z 21.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN