000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 JOVA IS MAINTAINING A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE...BUT NO EYE IS APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY DID DEPICT AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER. DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THE HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER OF JOVA CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ONCE INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE WHICH INCLUDES AN INLAND DECAY MODEL. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS MAY CAUSE AN EVEN MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY...SO JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE. LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A LITTLE AND THE MOTION IS NOW 020/7. JOVA IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE MOSTLY DISSIPATED IN A DAY OR SO...AS ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF JOVA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH WIND AND SURGE ARE OBVIOUSLY A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ALONG THE COAST...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO IS ALSO A BIG CONCERN. HEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 19.0N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.9N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 20.4N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/1200Z 20.7N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0000Z 21.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH