000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112036
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED JOVA AND
REPORTED THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE FLIGHT
YESTERDAY.  THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 95 KT...AND
THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 78 KT.  THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 973 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 85 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MIGHT BE THE CAUSE OF THE OBSERVED WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/5...AND IN THE SHORT-TERM THE CENTER
MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN 5 KT.  JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN
A UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL.
 
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER
THAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TIME OF DISSIPATION IS NOW JUST AFTER
48 HOURS...WHICH IS 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT JOVA COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN THIS
TIME.
 
HEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 18.3N 105.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 19.3N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 20.4N 104.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/0600Z 21.4N 104.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/1800Z 22.2N 104.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN