000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110849
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE
HAS DEGRADED WITH THE EYE NO LONGER CLOSED AND ONLY THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL INTACT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB AND TAFB....AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AGAIN
DECREASED.  THE WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 100 KT...WHICH
IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.  JOVA
WILL BE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AND REMAIN IN
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL.  NEARLY ALL OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED BEFORE
THE HURRICANE REACHES MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY...AND JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 
POWERFUL HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED
BELOW. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030/5 KT.  THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE
UPDATED TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 17.5N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 19.9N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/1800Z 21.3N 105.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0600Z 22.2N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  14/0600Z 23.5N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN