000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110235
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...
AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF
T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND JOVA WILL BE PASSING OVER 30
DEG C SSTS AS IT NEARS THE COAST.  ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
STRENGTH IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY ONCE
THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE MOTION OF JOVA HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 030/6.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TWO OF
THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS THAT TYPICALLY PERFORM QUITE WELL...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. 
THIS IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.  IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 17.4N 106.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH