000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102052 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS OF 114 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND A BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 109 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LAST DROPSONDE REPORT IN THE EYE INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 956 MB...BUT WITH A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 15 KT. AS A RESULT...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 955 MB. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO CHANGES HAD TO MADE TO THE VARIOUS WIND RADII BASED ON THE RECON WIND DATA. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/04 KT. JOVA HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW LIES ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC HFIP TV15 AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS. JOVA HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS NEAR 30C... ESPECIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND JOVA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATE JOVA REMAINS A RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY... ESPECIALLY IF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...EVEN THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTAL TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WESTERLY FETCH OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF JOVA EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE IS INLAND AT 48 HOURS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE 36-HOUR TRACK FORECAST HAS AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.8N 106.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 18.2N 105.2W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z 22.7N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART