000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101447 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE IS APPARENT IN THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND THE EYE HAS WARMED BY MORE THAN 30C IN INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...THE SURROUNDING RING OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES HAS HAD INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN IT. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB... SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KT...JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO RECONNOITER JOVA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JOVA IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. FARTHER EAST...12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE INCREASED BY 30-50 METERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH MEANS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF JOVA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY SOON. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-RANGE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE MODELS BEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...RECENT MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A MUCH WIDER VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JOVA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN CONTRAST...THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AND KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HWRF... ECMWF...AND TVCN AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. AS A RESULT... A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS WERE USED IN CONSTRUCTING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES JUST A TAD EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 29C UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TODAY. JOVA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE CAN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN...IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BE AT LEAST A MAJOR HURRICANE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE... GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH HAVE THUS FAR PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH JOVA. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE 36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75 AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 106.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART