000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100901
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOVA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SMALL EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 105 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL CYCLES COULD
OCCUR...BUT JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS...THE UPDATE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE
UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
JOVA HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT.  THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE 
IS 085/4 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.  A SECOND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEST
OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...AND
NORTHWARD IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND SHOW JOVA APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF ABOUT 75
AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 16.3N 107.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 72H  13/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  14/0600Z 24.5N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN