000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100246
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011
 
JOVA REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
COLD-TOPPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET
TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW CIMSS. HIGH CLOUD AND
WATER VAPOR MOTIONS SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED OVER MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. JOVA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND OVER SSTS NEAR 29 DEG C. AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH
CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

JOVA CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK...OR 080/6.  THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL SOON BUILD NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO...AND THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENT SHOULD CAUSE JOVA
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT MODEL CONSENSUS.

SINCE THIS FORECAST SHOWS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
JOVA REACHING THE COAST IN 36 HOURS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.  INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND FORECAST LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A
POINT AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF A LITTLE
MORE THAN 100 MILES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 16.5N 107.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 17.9N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 19.1N 104.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 22.0N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  14/0000Z 24.0N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH