000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092043
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011
 
AN EYE APPEARED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MOST OF THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LAST HOUR WHEN IT BECAME
CLOUD-COVERED DUE TO A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
EYEWALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY ABERRATION. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA
FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 976 MB ON ITS LAST PASS THROUGH THE
CENTER...DOWN 3 MB FROM ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH AN HOUR PRIOR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINED AT 80 KT BASED
ON PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 79 KT AND 81 KT...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY A
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 77 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/07 KT. JOVA IS ON TRACK AND THERE IS
NOTHING NEW TO DISCUSS CONCERNING THE TRACK FORECAST. OTHER THAN
SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AFTER
THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
MANZANILLO FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...USERS
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERROR AT THAT TIME PERIOD IS ABOUT 100 NMI.
 
JOVA HAS A ROUGHLY 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE BASED ON RECON DATA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED CDO FEATURE...WHICH IS FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER
OF A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. JOVA HAS ALL THE CLASSIC SIGNS OF
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR ABOUT HALF OF
ALL THE HURRICANES THAT HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
SURROUNDING JOVA...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.
 
BASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 16.2N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 16.4N 106.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 17.1N 105.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/1800Z 23.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART