000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091433 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH A 09/0936Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED THE EYE WAS OPEN TO THE NORTHEAST...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME INDICATES CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND HAVE WRAPPED AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING WARM SPOT OR EYE IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CDO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77 KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.6/79 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JOVA IS MOVING EASTWARD...OR 090/05 KT...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR RATIONALE. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO IN WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. BY 48 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE JOVA TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN SPEED DIFFERENCES... THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 60-72 HOURS...USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 NMI. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM STILL APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE GFS MODEL DUE TO WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO CREATING EXCESSIVE SHEAR OWING TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA BY 48 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS...AS DO THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT FORECASTS OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER TWO MODELS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS... COUPLED WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...AND THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.2N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 16.2N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 16.6N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 17.5N 105.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 20.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 23.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART