000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090835 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT JOVA HAS STRENGTHENED. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING INNER-CORE STRUCTURE WITH A CLOSED EYEWALL...WHILE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOTED IN INFRARED PICTURES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE AROUND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOVA SHOULD PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH DATA THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD ABOUT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN JOVA NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4...AND SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 N MI...USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAKE JOVA A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS JOVA TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.0N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 15.9N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 16.2N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.6N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN