000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090244 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. JOVA IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS. THE FIRST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE SECOND TROUGH BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS JOVA MAKING LANDFALL IN 72-96 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS AND TAKE THE CENTER OVER OR WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS SHARP OF A TURN...AND IT CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION... AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL STILL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WHILE THE LGEM MODEL STILL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.9N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 19.0N 104.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 23.0N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN