000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO JOVA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 075/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE PACIFIC NORTH OF JOVA AND IRWIN EAST OF 130W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS JOVA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS AND OVER MEXICO BY 96 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE TRACK LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WHILE THE LGEM MODEL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 17.4N 105.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 18.4N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 22.0N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN