000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080843 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT LOCATING THE CENTER OF JOVA...BUT BASED ON CONTINUITY IT APPEARS TO NOW BE EMBEDDED BENEATH A LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 60-65 KT FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT...BUT IF THE CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...THIS COULD BE THE START OF A STRENGTHENING TREND. JOVA IS LOCATED DUE SOUTH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MAKING A NORTHWARD TURN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 005 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING NEAR ITS BASE AND EFFECTIVELY STEERING JOVA TOWARD THE EAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW JOVA RESPONDING TO THIS BY MAKING A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AT 72 HOURS AND APPROACHING THE MEXICAN COAST IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN KEEP THE CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST AT 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT THAT POINT BUT IS STILL INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY COMPLEX. THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH BRING JOVA TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH WEAKEN JOVA TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE TOO STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE EASTWARD MOTION DOES NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT A LOT OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN PULLED BACK A BIT AFTER 48 HOURS UP UNTIL LANDFALL...BUT IT IS STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.9N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.5N 108.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.6N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 18.0N 105.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 21.5N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG