000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071458
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011
 
JOVA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
CURVED BAND FEATURES FORMING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE A RATHER WIDE SPREAD THIS MORNING...
RANGING FROM ABOUT 40 KT FROM CIMSS AMSU TO 65 KT FROM TAFB.  THE
OVERALL MICROWAVE STRUCTURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS ONLY RAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  JOVA SHOULD
HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH WARM
SSTS ALONG ITS PATH.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS.  THIS FORECAST COULD BE STILL
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE GFDL/HWRF MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT.  JOVA IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWING
DOWN AND TURNING TO THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN
ERODING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JOVA TOWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS... THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFS
MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL...RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF 500 N MI
BY DAY 4.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASING...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 13.7N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 14.4N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 18.2N 107.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE