000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070858 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011 AN 0414 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOVA IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND ABOUT 50 KT FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING JOVA IS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS JOVA MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN RAISED ENOUGH. THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER 72 HOURS BEFORE JOVA REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 KT. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS TURN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS JOVA TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALMOST A DAY EARLIER THAN THE REST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND SHOWS JOVA REACHING THE COAST JUST BEFORE 96 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 14.1N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 14.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 15.8N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.6N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG