000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070312 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011 CORRECTED INCORRECTLY TRANSMITTED DISCUSSION JOVA IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS HAS DISPLACED THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9. JOVA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN TO THE WEST...SHOULD STEER JOVA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING JOVA TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN MEXICO. TWO OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH BOTH SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE AND THUS CALL FOR LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JOVA AND IRWIN MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL POSSIBLE....CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIRECT INTERACTION. WHILE JOVA REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE CURRENT SHEAR IS NOT INITIALIZED PROPERLY BY ANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN IT MAY DIMINISH. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITIES BEFORE LANDFALL BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH FORECAST MORE TIME OVER WATER...SHOW JOVA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING MEXICO. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT THAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.0N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 13.9N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.8N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.7N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 16.6N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 18.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 20.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 21.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN