000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061446
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
 
IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN EARLIER 85-GHZ SSM/I
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM FNMOC SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL 37-GHZ CHANNEL WAS LESS CONCLUSIVE.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN
REPOSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT IS LOCATED EVEN FARTHER EAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF BANDING
FEATURES IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A
RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. 
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DURING
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HFIP INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7.  THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
RECURVE AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES AS IT NEARS MEXICO.  THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THAN THE
UKMET AND ECMWF.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE
AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE
TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THEREAFTER IT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE TVCE CONSENSUS
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4
AND 5 AS THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT
THAT TIME FRAME IS ABOUT 175 TO 225 MILES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 11.5N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 12.2N 107.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 13.1N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 18.8N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 20.0N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN