000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060849
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
 
VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT
KEEPING THE WIND SPEED AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36
HOURS...ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 3 AS A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN EARLIER...AND GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN...THE NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS STILL FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 10.3N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 10.7N 106.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 12.4N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 13.6N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 15.1N 109.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE