000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060311
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 05 2011
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED.  A CDO-LIKE FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES TO -90C HAS RECENTLY FORMED...WITH MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.     
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC BUT
THIS WAS BEFORE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MASS DEVELOPED. BASED ON THE
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/09.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE
TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD.  THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 72 HOURS AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
REGION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF ALL OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMS AND
ECMWF MODELS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL MOTION AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION...SO THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS OF RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. 

SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHEAR OF ABOUT THIS MAGNITUDE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS BY SHOWING ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
TIME.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN STRENGTH AROUND THE POINT
OF RECURVATURE AND JUST PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 10.0N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 10.2N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 10.6N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 11.1N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 11.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 13.6N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 15.6N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.4N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN