000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060834
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011
 
EUGENE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23 DEG C WATER. ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE OUTER
CIRCULATION...WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATING
ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER.  IN SPITE OF THE NEARLY TOTAL LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SATELLITE PICTURES AND A 0515 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST
THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 35 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB/SAB SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC AND SEVERAL 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS
FROM THE ASCAT PASS.  A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS
THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES EVEN COOLER WATERS. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
EUGENE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  IN ABOUT
36 HR...EUGENE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...
EUGENE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE MULTI-MODEL TVCE
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 18.9N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1800Z 19.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z 19.9N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN