000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052031
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE.  A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.  THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/11...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HR.  AFTERWARD...EUGENE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND
TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW AS CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 18.2N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 18.7N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 19.3N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 19.8N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 20.2N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA