000
WTPZ45 KNHC 051433
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011
 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  IN FACT...A 1005 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW JUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK FINAL-T
NUMBERS HAVE PLUMMETED TO 3.5 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0542 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF AROUND 50 TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 55 KT BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS
THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COLDER WATER AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY
EARLIER...AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT A STEADY 285/11...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENED SHALLOW
REFLECTION OF EUGENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 17.9N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 19.1N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 20.8N 134.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA