000
WTPZ45 KNHC 050835
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011
 
EUGENE CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED THAT THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DECAYED FURTHER. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN QUICKLY SHRINKING...AND THAT WHICH REMAINS
PRIMARILY LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF T AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...
WITH THE WEAKENING PERHAPS BECOMING MORE RAPID ONCE EUGENE REACHES
SUB-24C WATERS AFTER 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW FORECAST WITHIN 2 DAYS...
SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
 
EUGENE REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE STILL
285/11.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD HOLD
SWAY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE EUGENE TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED.  ONCE EUGENE WEAKENS
FURTHER AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...A DECELERATION OF THE
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER TRADE WIND
FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT DISREGARDS THE HWRF.
 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON A 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 17.6N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 18.7N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 19.7N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN