000
WTPZ45 KNHC 050232
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
EUGENE HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED. AT 0000 UTC...
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 77 AND 83 KT...AND WITH THE
RECENT COMPLETE LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET TO 75 KT. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW A FASTER DECLINE IN
WINDS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE LAST
ADVISORY. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 3 DAYS DUE TO
SSTS COOLING BELOW 23C.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT THE RATHER CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 285/11. 
THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN
A BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DOWN IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. 
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 17.4N 121.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 17.8N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 18.4N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 19.0N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 19.6N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 20.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE