000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042032 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011 200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE NOT WARMED MUCH...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS T5.0/5.8. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C AND INTO A DRIER... MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES TO CLOSELY FOLLOW LGEM...THE HIGHEST OF THE GUIDANCE...THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 96 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/12 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME DECELERATION AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. ALTHOUGH A 1658 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY SKIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HURRICANE...IT DID INDICATE THAT THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE TOO LARGE ON THAT SIDE. THE RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT WITHOUT REAL GROUND TRUTH...THEY COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.2N 120.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.6N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 124.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 18.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG